We still have a couple of award shows to go before the Oscars (the BAFTAs are tonight and then the writers’ guild announces their picks next weekend and then finally the Independent Spirit awards are the night before the Oscars). While my picks may vary slightly after the BAFTAs, I’m pretty confident that this is how my Oscar ballot will look on the big night. Should your office have a pool, feel free to steal my picks. :)
The nominees: Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty.
Conventional wisdom: Argo; it’s won every Best Picture so far.
My thoughts: I’m going to stick with Lincoln. The last time a movie won Best Picture without getting a Best Director nod was in 1989 for Driving Miss Daisy. Of course it COULD happen again this year, but I don’t think so. I would remind you that Brokeback Mountain also did very well pre-Oscar but the Academy gave the award to Crash that year. I read an article that Oscar loves movies about movies (and Argo fits that bill, if you stretch it a little) but it also loves movies about history…even if other award shows shun them. (Shakespeare in Love, anyone?)
Michael Haneke, Amour; Ang Lee, Life of Pi; David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook; Steven Spielberg, Lincoln; Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild.
Conventional wisdom: This is up in the air; Ben Affleck’s made quite the showing for Argo but he wasn’t even nominated here. So…pick a card, any card.
My thoughts: It’s really between David O. Russell and Spielberg, I think. And I’m going to go with Spielberg.
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook; Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln; Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables; Joaquin Phoenix, The Master; Denzel Washington, Flight.
Conventional wisdom: Daniel Day-Lewis.
My thoughts: Um, YEAH.
BEST ACTRESS: Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty; Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook; Emmanuelle Riva, Amour; Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild; Naomi Watts, The Impossible.
Conventional Wisdom: Jennifer Lawrence.
My thoughts: I agree. I had picked Jessica Chastain before, but the momentum isn’t in her favor. In a perfect world, Oscar would reward Emmanuelle Riva (who is also the oldest ever Best Actress nominee) because she did an amazing job in Amour. But we do not live in a perfect world. I think it’ll go to Jennifer Lawrence.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Alan Arkin, Argo; Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook; Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master; Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln; Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained.
Conventional wisdom: Tommy Lee Jones.
My thoughts: I agree. Excellent role and he does it very well.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Amy Adams, The Master; Sally Field, Lincoln; Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables; Helen Hunt, The Sessions; Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook.
Conventional wisdom: Anne Hathaway.
My thoughts: Yup. Before I saw Les Miserables, I thought Sally Field was a shoo-in. But I don’t see anyone beating Fantine.
I think Django Unchained will get original screenplay and Silver Linings Playbook will get adapted. I think Brave will get Best Animated, Amour Best Foreign and Skyfall will get Best Song (yay Adele!). I hope Life of Pi gets cinematography; that movie was gorgeous. It could easily get editing, too (although I usually suck in the technical categories; maybe stop listening to me after Best Song).